Economists Are “Rolling Their Eyes” at GOP Tax Scam Claims
It’s probably not a great sign when economists are “rolling their eyes” at your claims about your tax law as today’s Politico sub-headline points out. We aren’t buying the claims that Republicans are making about the economy and the tax law, and economists aren’t either. Key excerpts:
“Republicans facing a tough midterm election season are pointing to the strong economy as proof their new tax law is working its magic.”
“But… there’s little evidence the tax cuts are already having an impact across the economy, which was already humming even before the law was enacted.”
“Unemployment, which dropped to 3.9 percent in April, has been declining for years, falling to 4.1 percent before the tax cuts were approved.”
“‘It's just way too early to see any kind of evidence of faster growth, faster investment, more labor supply — any of that stuff,’ said Joel Prakken, chief economist at Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit, a prominent economic forecasting firm. ‘Anybody who thought that, within a quarter or two, there would be a big uptick in growth is deluding themselves.’”
“People who monitor economic indicators say the changes have barely begun to register.”
“‘So far, we have not seen any meaningful effects of the stimulus on economic activity,’ JPMorgan said in a research note earlier this month.”
“Even conservative economists are waving off the bonuses touted by lawmakers as a poor gauge of the law's impact.”
“‘The effects of all of these initiatives are subtle,’ he said. ‘People are still arguing over what were the effects of the 2001 tax cut or of the 2009 stimulus package. We have some idea, based on statistical evidence, but we don't have a conclusive idea — and we certainly didn't develop a conclusive idea within a few months.’”
“But… there’s little evidence the tax cuts are already having an impact across the economy, which was already humming even before the law was enacted.”
“Unemployment, which dropped to 3.9 percent in April, has been declining for years, falling to 4.1 percent before the tax cuts were approved.”
“‘It's just way too early to see any kind of evidence of faster growth, faster investment, more labor supply — any of that stuff,’ said Joel Prakken, chief economist at Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit, a prominent economic forecasting firm. ‘Anybody who thought that, within a quarter or two, there would be a big uptick in growth is deluding themselves.’”
“People who monitor economic indicators say the changes have barely begun to register.”
“‘So far, we have not seen any meaningful effects of the stimulus on economic activity,’ JPMorgan said in a research note earlier this month.”
“Even conservative economists are waving off the bonuses touted by lawmakers as a poor gauge of the law's impact.”
“‘The effects of all of these initiatives are subtle,’ he said. ‘People are still arguing over what were the effects of the 2001 tax cut or of the 2009 stimulus package. We have some idea, based on statistical evidence, but we don't have a conclusive idea — and we certainly didn't develop a conclusive idea within a few months.’”