Brookings: CBO will predict 15 million to lose coverage under GOP reform bill

While we wait for a CBO score, expected next week, Brookings is out with their estimate of the impacts of the GOP #PayMoreForLess ACA repeal bill and – shocker – the news is NOT good for Republicans. From Politico:

“A new Brookings analysis predicts that Republicans’ health proposal would erase about two-thirds of the coverage gains of the Affordable Care Act ahead of the Congressional Budget Office score to be released next week.”

“‘We conclude that CBO’s analysis will likely estimate that at least 15 million people will lose coverage under the American Health Care Act by the end of the 10-year scoring window,’ Loren Adler and Matthew Fiedler write. CBO previously estimated about 24 million Americans would gain coverage through Obamacare within the same time frame.”

“Republicans are taking votes on the repeal bill without having a CBO score, which has vexed some lawmakers who don’t want to vote on a bill without knowing its effects. ‘No excuse to release bill [Monday] night, start voting [Wednesday],’ Sen. Tom Cottontweeted today. ‘With no budget estimate!’”

“According to Brookings, which extrapolates from previous CBO scores, the budget office will conclude that Republican plans to repeal the individual mandate would reduce coverage by 15 million and their proposed changes to the Medicaid program would lead to ‘significant’ coverage losses, likely several million.”

“The net effect of the bill’s other provisions to change the insurance markets is unclear, but ‘unlikely to mitigate’ those coverage losses, Brookings concludes.”

“Other analyses have projected the Republican bill would lead to significant declines in coverage, although measured different time horizons and reported different figures. Standard & Poor’s this week estimated the private exchange market would shrink by 4 million by 2019 and Medicaid enrollment would fall by as much as 6 million by 2024.”